By National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)
Read or Download A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report) PDF
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Extra info for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)
Because few direct data addressed this issue, EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) chose to obtain the judgments of experts to better understand possible effects of prolonged ozone exposure. This effort was called the ozone chronic risk assessment. 3; the assessment followed the 10 steps very closely, but not exactly. Two encoding sessions were conducted with each expert. The first session was conducted at each expert's office. The second session was a workshop that all experts attended and where first-round judgments were presented and discussed.
Winkler (1971) found little benefit from using more than five or six judgments when predicting football scores. Practice in risk analysis indicates that from 4 to 12 experts should be used in a panel format, with 6 to 8 being a good middle ground. Because experts usually share knowledge to some extent, judgments are often correlated, and thus the combined judgment of many experts carries less information than would be the case if the experts were independent. 8, no matter how large the number of experts is, their information cannot be greater than that obtained from two independent experts of equal capability.
In this manner, several drafts of the protocol were generated and revised. After several revisions, the protocol was pilot-tested on an EPA staff member and an EPA contractor. Some weaknesses not previously recognized became apparent during the pilot testing, and the protocol was revised further to correct them. Consultations and discussions among members of the risk assessment team led to some final tuning to create the protocol that was actually used in the encoding process. The following is a brief annotated outline of the contents of the encoding protocol: 40 / 4.